Daily case records in 3 of last 4 days
As the spread of novel coronavirus in Sonora, Mexico grows, the state has seen daily case records in three of the last four days. And indicators show that the magnitude of spread may be as much as 10 times the reported cases.
Yesterday evening the Sonora state health agency “Salud Sonora” reported a new daily high of 570 new daily cases. It was the third record in the last four days, starting with 480 cases last Thursday and 549 cases yesterday.
Hermosillo experiences exponential growth
One reason for the increasing daily coronavirus cases is the state capital of Hermosillo, which is experiencing an exponential growth of cases. On July 1, the city reported a total of 2,947 cases. By August 1 that number had grown to 8,982, a 67% increase in cases in one month.
Hermosillo’s growth has been more accurately captured than the spread in the rest of the state, because the city has the most hospitals (including a state hospital) and largest concentration of testing resources.
The pandemic is widespread and growing in Sonora, with reported cases in 65 of its 72 municipalities. And in all likelihood it is present in all of Sonora’s municipalities – those without a reported case are in rural areas without access to a hospital (and testing), and where residents may be more likely to suffer the virus at home rather than seek medical care.
Low levels of testing
Like all other Mexican states, Sonora performs tests on a very limited level. To date, it has tested only 30,093 people; 20,592 of those tested positive for the coronavirus.
It has a positive rate of 68.5%, where a positive test rate of five percent or less indicates that a sufficient amount of testing is being performed. This indicates an extremely insufficient amount of testing being performed in the state, likely due to resource issues.
There is no widespread testing in Sonora, it is still at a stage where only suspected cases are tested as they present at health care facilities.
Sonora will not be able to control its coronavirus outbreak until it performs more widespread testing in sufficient numbers. Until then, it will not be able to report accurate numbers of infections, a critical first step in bringing the epidemic under control.
Sonora reports about 10% the rate of Arizona infections; in reality they may be about the same
Another significant indicator in determining the spread of the virus is the number of deaths as a percentage of total cases. Sonora’s population of 2.85 million is less than 40% of Arizona’s population of 7.3 million, and on a daily basis, Sonora has reported about 10% as many cases as Arizona.
The virus is typically fatal for about one percent of individuals infected. Arizona’s death rate is 2.1% of its total reported cases. In Sonora, the COVID-19 death rate is 9.4%. This, combined with low testing rates, indicates that Sonora’s uncounted number of coronavirus cases may be as much of ten times greater than that reported.
A small portion of Sonora’s higher death rate may be in part due to factors like lack of access to adequate PPE, lack of treatment medications and other issues with medical care. However, considering reported numbers of cases, percent tested and the mortality rate, it is possible that Sonora’s coronavirus cases are on a par with those reported in Arizona.
The beat goes on
One thing is for certain, both Arizona and Sonora have coronavirus outbreaks that will not peak until later this year and decline to acceptable levels until 2021. In actuality, Sonora’s COVID-19 infection rate may not peak this year, depending on that government’s ability to expand testing and care.
Nationally, Mexico has reported 439,046 cases and 47,746 deaths. Sonora’s portion of that is 20,592 confirmed cases and 1929 deaths.
The Mexican national coronavirus coordinator makes a weekly decision whether a state will receive a “stoplight” color rating of red (the most severe) or orange (less severe).
And while there is some debate whether Sonora deserves its current “orange” rating it is clear that in reality it will be a red zone for several weeks, if not months, to come.
