According to data released by the Mexican Ministry of Labor, Sonora’s job growth languished for the second straight year, registering an annual increase of 1.5 percent.
In contrast, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last year that Arizona’s seasonally adjusted employment increased by 2.8 percent from June 2018 to June 2019. That rate of growth was the second-fastest in the nation.
The four highest job growth sectors in Sonora were transportation and communication (5.4 percent); commerce (2.7 percent); construction (2.6 percent) and agriculture (2.4 percent).
An article by El Imparcial this morning cited “experts and businessmen” in saying that the meager increase was due to low levels of Sonora state funding for businesses and uncertainty about new federal policies.
It also quoted a University of Sonora economist in saying that the low job growth was similar to that of other Mexico-U.S. border states, reflecting the slow growth of the Mexican economy.
But slow growth is better than no growth for a Mexican national economy, which slid into recession in 2019.
Jobs added in Sonora and nationally from 2015
Excluding other factors, such as job losses, used to calculate overall job growth, the year-to-year numbers of jobs added in Sonora and Mexico provides another perspective on the Sonoran and Mexican economies.
Sonora
According to an inset in the El Imparcial story, the number of jobs added in Sonora from 2015 to 2019 shows a different pattern when compared to overall jobs added nationally during that time.
In Sonora, 13,934 jobs were added in 2015. The next year, the number of jobs added jumped to 22,858, a nearly 40 percent increase. The number of new jobs added in Sonora remained high in 2017, increasing by approximately three percent to 23,680.
Then, in 2018 there was a precipitous drop in the number of jobs added in Sonora. The jobs-added count fell to 9281 from 23,680, a nearly 61 percent decrease.
So, judging only from the number of jobs added this year compared to last year (9626 to 9281), there were 3.5 percent more jobs added. This is still 30 percent lower than the 2015 baseline but may indicate stability going forward, especially with the expected addition of 500 jobs from the October opening of the AT Engine manufacturing facility.
Mexico
The total number of jobs added nationally in Mexico increased slightly every year from 2015 to 2017 (644,426 to 802,111). In 2018 that number declined to within three percent of the 2015 tally.
Then, between 2018 and 2019 the amount of new positions added annually plummeted, from 660,910 to 342,077. Nearly 50 percent. So, if the national statistics claim an increase in year-over-year employment of 1.7 percent that is truly astounding.
Whether the data indicate stability for Sonora, a continued freefall for Mexico or something entirely different will be shown in more clarity after the 2020 numbers are tallied.
As mentioned, Sonora will see a major new aerospace manufacturing facility this year, and the new USMCA agreement should boost both economies.